Clutch time for this FPL season is well and truly underway, I happened to use the Triple Captain chip in GW26 and my first Free Hit in GW28, going against the trend of Free Hitting in GW27. That played out well for me, my OR increased from 414K at the end of GW25 to 255K at the end of GW28.

It all started with a 143 (-8) points return in GW26, thanks a Mo Salah Triple captain haul and unlikely double digit hauls from Dennis and Pope. GW27 was a tricky one to navigate with Liverpool and Arsenal blanking, I managed to field 11 players with a -4 hit, but with Reguilon, Ait Nouri and Dalot not playing, I only had 8 active players. That being said, I managed to avoid drastic drop in rank thanks to Son captaincy and returns from Cancelo and Che Adams. Not playing a Free Hit in BGW27 allowed me to take a FH in DGW28 and boy that played out well. I went in for a few differentials and bumper returns form Havertz, Coutinho and James worked out very well. I almost captained Coutinho, but eventually played it safe with Salah, it would have been a 20 points swing! But don’t have too many complaints

Now coming to preparation for next couple of GWs, I currently have 6 double game players for DGW29 and 5 players for BGW30, and with only Arsenal and Spurs being the two teams that double in GW29 and play in 30, they are obvious choices to target. A -8 to get three players from either of the two sides will allow me to have 9 players with double games and 9 players for blank gameweek 30 without a hit. This will leave me with a Free Hit, Wildcard and Bench boost for remaining 8 GWs. Worst case, if the team for GW30 has major gaps, I could FH in 30 as well.

My options for DGW29 are based on the following analysis for xG and xGA for last 5 GWs for all the team having two games in GW29 and their opponents. Attacking and defensive potential wise Liverpool seem to be best pick, followed by Tottenham attack wise and surprisingly, Newcastle from a defensive point of view.

1. Dejan Kulusevski – Kulusevski has the highest xA of 2.05 over last 5 GWs and to go with that he has has an xG of 1.13, for a player priced at 6.2M it is a great return. Although Son and Kane have better overall numbers, for the price Dejan offers great value.
2. Alexandra Lacazette – Arsenal have decent attacking potential potential over the 2 GWs and Laca has been leading the line well over past few GWs. He has an xG of 1.95 and xA of 1.53 over last 5 GWs, best among Arsenal attackers, maybe he is due a haul. He is currently priced at 8.3M, and if that is a constraint, Saka and Odegaard are decent options too.
3. Andrew Robertson – Robertson is in great form and Liverpool have great attacking and defensive potential. He is averaging 6.4 points over last 4 GWs. The only challenge is I will have to get rid of Cancelo to get him in and that would mean only 8 players for GW30 without a hit.
4. Ben White – I on the look out for a cheap Arsenal defender to replace Dalot with and although Arsenal play Liverpool, I hope Arsenal can keep a clean sheet against Brighton, which could mean a decent return of 8 / 9 points over the GW for someone like Ben White, and he also plays in GW30, unlike Robertson.

I will most likely make 2 to 3 transfers from the above listed players for this GW. Next question is going to be about captaincy, and captaining Salah is a DGW involving Liverpool seems like the most obvious decision, but TAA and if I manage to get Robertson, even he would be a great captaincy shout. I played it safe last GW and it didn’t work out (although Salah could have easliy gotten on the scoresheet), I might just go slightly aggressive and handover the captaincy to TAA or Robertson.

Best of luck, green arrows everyone!