As I discussed in previous post, it was time for some differential moves and so I did that in GW 6 with the Lukaku to Vardy move and that paid off with Vardy returning 11 points in the GW, to aid my jump to 1.2M from 1.6M. However, next GW after bringing Lukaku back for Vardy and getting Sarr in for Torres for a -4, I managed only 38(-4) points to drop back to 1.5M. So it has been a see-saw journey so far and to be honest with International breaks slowing the progress of the game, I can’t seem to gain momentum. I am hoping to be consistent over the next 4 GWs and be closer to 500k by end of GW11.

Having already used my Wildcard, I focused on incremental changes keeping in mind the short term and long term view, I arrived at the transfer options for GW8.

Based on my limited analysis, it was clear to me that Dennis is not going to add a lot of value to the team over next few GWs, hence it was a clear choice to consider him as an option for transferring out and with 0.7M in hand, I had an option to consider Pukki or Hwang as a straight swap.

I was extremely tempted with Hwang as an option, his and Wolves’ stats look promising and with not difficult fixtures over next couple of GWs, he seemed like a great choice for a straight swap and for the initial period I was not too keen on a hit and Hwang seemed like the best choice to me, specially with Pukki not seeming enticing enough, at least for next couple of GWs and fixtures turning only from GW10.

Slowly I opened myself to a possibility of my second hit in as many weeks, primarily because I am extremely tempted by Armstrong as an option. Southampton have a great run over next few weeks and this could be the right time to make a proactive move for a player like Armstrong with decent underlying stats and the fact that Southampton play Leeds who have an xGA of almost 1.9 per game over last 4 GWs.

I must admit, the hottest differential for this GW seems to be Callum Wilson. He is 0.9% owned, is playing against a Spurs team that have an XG of 2.0 per game over last 4 GWs (highest), has the like of in-form ASM to create along side him and is a bit of a talismanic player, to me all of this points in the direction of Wilson getting into thick of things this GW and managing some return. If my team structure and budget allowed, would have definitely gone for him. I flirted with option of Maupay as a 1 week punt, but with Brighton having some tough fixtures after this, decided against it.

To accommodate Armstrong in my team, I needed to look for a midfielder to replace. My options came down to Raphinha and Sarr. Although I just got Sarr last GW, I decided to take him out given Watford’s fixtures. The options to consider as his replacement were ESR and Mbuemo for me. I was vary of the fact that Bretford are playing Chelsea and hence Mbuemo didn’t appeal to me initially, but as I looked deeper, Chelsea have an xGA of 1.28 per GW over last 4, so they are not as solid as they seem to be and Brentford have the capability to bang against the likes of Big 6 etc and Mbuemo has the highest xG for Brentford over last 4 GWs, he could be due a haul.

So my transfers are:

Dennis + Sarr –> Armstrong + Mbuemo

Captaincy

My choices for captaincy were between Salah, Ronaldo, Lukaku and Cancelo. I have a hunch that Cancelo could grab a haul against Burnley getting involved in both defensive and attacking parts of the game, however did not want to take too many chances, having already signed by 2 differentials in the team.

So among Salah, Ronaldo, Lukaku it came down to their respective team’s chances of scoring and opponents chances of conceding and as per simple math for me, the order of preference for me is Salah, Ronaldo and then Lukaku. This is simply based on their own team’s xG and opponent’s xGA over last 4 GWs. So I will stick to this and put the armband on Salah.

Summary of differential picks for GW8

Wilson – 0.9% owned

Maupay – 4.6% owned

Adam Armstrong – 3% owned

Mbuemo – 2.4% owned

Have a great GW, green arrows everyone!